Market Data

Market Trends(26)

The Colorado-based Smashburger chain is expanding to 135 stores in Arizona, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. The company is looking for locations on restaurant rows with 50,000-car traffic counts and average household incomes of $60,000.

Briefly Noted

HOSPITALITY — While hotels always have been an active mixed-use component, look for fewer pairings of luxury hospitality product and for-sale residential units and more combinations of limited-service hotels with office space and rental apartments, says Ernst & Young.

INDUSTRIAL — Industrial demand will remain weak well into 2010, according to Torto Wheaton Research. By year-end 2010, more than half of the largest industrial markets will see vacancy surpassing the 2003 peak of 11.7 percent.

MULTIFAMILY — In the five most overbuilt markets — Atlanta, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix — 4Q08 occupancy drops ranged between 2.6 percent and 4.8 percent and rents dropped between 0.6 percent and 4.9 percent, according to M/PF Yieldstar.

OFFICE — In the next 12 months, nine to 10 million sf will join the current 9 million sf of CBD office shadow space left empty by financial, legal, and insurance office-using sectors, says Cushman & Wakefield. Hardest hit markets include New York, San Francisco, Orange County, Calif., and Dallas.  

RETAIL — Net lease retail properties sold in 4Q08 posted an average cap rate of 7.5 percent, according to Boulder Net Lease Funds. Of the 11,388 net lease retail properties currently on the market, nearly 30 percent are listed at a cap rate under
7 percent.

 

Hospitality Snapshot

December 2008
       
Sector
    Occupancy
(YTD %
change)    Average
daily rate
(YTD % change)    Rooms under
construction
in U.S.
       
Luxury
    -5.0
    -0.1
    7,500
       
Upper upscale
    -3.5
    1.3
    19,000
       
Upscale
    -3.5
    1.1
    52,300
       
Midscale w/ food & beverage
    -5.4
    3.1
    8,500
       
Midscale w/o
food & beverage
    -4.7
    3.4
    59,200
       
Economy
    -4.4
    1.0
    10,400
       
Source: STR
    

Self-Storage Pipeline

       
Region
    Cap rate
(4Q08)    2008 new
product (SF)    2009 estimate
supply (SF)       
North Central
    8.7
    800,000
    150,000
       
Northeast
    8.8
    1.5 million
    500,000
       
South Central
    8.9
    830,000
    100,000
       
Southeast
    8.6
    2.4 million
    1.0 million
       
West
    7.7
    4.4 million
    1.3 million
       
Source: Marcus & Millichap
    

London Tops Global Opportunities

Among the first to fall in 2007, London could be the earliest recovering commercial real estate market worldwide, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Investors from the Middle East, Europe, and Japan are searching the city for assets in the 4 percent to 6 percent capitalization rate range, and they may just find them. The city offers a number of niche opportunities with low leverage and strong cash flows. Recent transactions have shown 8 percent to 9 percent yields while internal rates of return are in
the mid- to upper teens, helped in part by the weak British currency.

Renovate Wisely

Multifamily owners and landlords shouldn’t give up on renovations in this economy but should focus on strategies that result in at least “20 percent (a five-year payback) on incremental dollars invested,” according to MultiHousing News. Stratified renovations that create two price points within a property is one strategy, as is focusing on amenity upgrades such as lobbies, fitness rooms, and business centers. In a recession, renters are more likely to use and value such services. After improving fundamental systems, “the greatest return on investment dollars comes in improving the common areas,” says Rob Rosania, CEO of Stellar Management, which owns and manages more than 20,000 units nationwide.

Worth Repeating

“The more diverse your clientele, the less likely you will be without sufficient income. Remember to market for growth. Don’t simply cater to your existing customer base, but rather, open your business aperture to include non-traditional potential clients. Those customers represent growth and prosperity.
Do not put all your eggs in one basket.”
— Suzanne Caplan, founder of www.womenetcetera.com


 

CBD Office Rent Forecast

       
Market
    Rental rates ($/psf)
               
    2008
(actual)    2009
          2010
       2011
         2012
       
Boston
    46.45
    43.11
    40.84
    43.19
    48.59
       
Houston
    30.53
    31.90
    32.90
    33.89
    34.92
       
San Francisco
    46.31
    41.31
    37.44
    35.72
    37.93
       
Seattle
    34.67
    31.80
    31.54
    33.06
    34.37
       
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
    

 
What’s It Listed At?
       
A look at...
    retail net lease properties
    price
       
    Fort Collins
130 S. College Ave.
Fort Collins, Colo.
15,000 sf, free-standing building on 7,000-sf lot in CBD
100% occupied     $2,999,000
1 year on lease
ID# 16087294
Keller Williams
Realty
       
    Cortez Pointe II
Bradenton, Fla.
9,438-sf strip center on 1.15-acre lot in retail district
86% occupied    $2,471,000
5 years on lease
ID# 15362482
Florida Commercial Property
       
    Logan’s Roadhouse
Bowling Green, Ky.
8,140-sf net leased to national chain in city of 53,000

    $4,354,494
17 years on lease
ID# 16021791
Sperry Van Ness       
    Yachats River House
Yachats, Ore.
5,140-sf building on 17,120-sf lot leased to upscale restaurant
in coastal town    $825,000
3 years on lease
ID# 15901859
Compass Commercial Real Estate Services
       
Source: CCIMNet/LoopNet
    

Is LEED Worth It?

A December 2008 survey of green building professionals showed a decline in the perceived value of pursuing Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design property certification. While almost all 900 professionals surveyed thought building green was worthwhile, only two-thirds thought certification was necessary. Reasons could vary from the economic crisis to competing certification programs and increased regulation at the local level. However, green building is still growing: The value of green construction has grown from $10 billion in 2005 to $50 billion in 2008 and is forecast to reach $150 billion by 2013, according to McGraw Hill Construction.  

Source: 3rd annual Allen Matkins/CTG/Green Building Insider “Green Building Survey”

Now Opening

Slightly more than 40 percent of corporate real estate executives surveyed in fall 2008 plan to open these types of new facilities in the next two years:

Source: Area Development.com’s 23rd annual corporate survey

Worth Quoting

“The largest industrial markets of Virginia, West Virginia, and Ohio located along the Heartland Corridor, which extends from Norfolk, [Va.,] to Columbus, can expect a healthy increase in demand for warehouse space from new businesses seeking access to the ports.”
New Age of Trade: The Americas white paper by NAIOP Research Foundation and Cushman & Wakefield


A three-year project raises vertical clearances on 28 Heartland Corridor rail tunnels between the Port of Hampton Roads, Va., and Chicago to provide a faster route for double-stack containerized freight trains. Three new and expanded intermodal terminals along the route will increase international trade opportunities and stimulate adjacent industrial development.

Reality Check: Market in Action Now

An Ernst & Young survey of 2,300 global real estate executives in fall 2008 revealed that nearly 73 percent planned to be in the market as buyers in the first half of 2009. Nearly 45 percent said they were buying as of last fall, another 28 percent planned to go active after January 1, and the final 27 percent planned to enter the market after June. And 65 percent expected commercial lending to improve this year.


 

Warehouse Rent Growth Forecast

       
Market
    Historical
average rent
growth (%)
    Historical
two-year
average annual rent growth (%)
    Forecasted
two-year
average annual
rent growth (%)
       
Midwest
    1.6
    1.2
    -1.8
       
Texas
    2.9
    6.2
    -2.2
       
East Coast/Mid-Atlantic
    0.8
    1.4
    0.4
       
Florida
    2.9
    -3.3
    -3.7
       
West Coast
    2.6
    5.1
    -0.2
       
Southern California
    2.6
    2.5
    -2.7
       
Arizona
    3.4
    -0.4
    -8.6
       
Source: TWR Spring 2009 Industrial Outlook XL
    

 

Stimulating Places

On a per capita basis, these states will benefit most from the
$787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

       
State
    Total jobs created/
per capita    4Q08
unemployment
rate (%)       
Washington,
D.C.
    12,000/1 job per every 49 people
    8.8
       
Wyoming
    8,000/1 per 67
    3.4
       
Nevada
    34,000/1 per 76
    9.1
       
Nebraska
    23,000/1 per 78
    4.0
       
Vermont
    8,000/1 per 78
    6.4
       
    
Source: Forbes


 

Mortgage Originations

4Q08
       
Sector
    Origination volume
index (2001 average
quarter = 100)    Percent
change
4Q07 to 4Q08    Average
loan size
(in millions)       
Multifamily
    83
    -62
    11.4
       
Office
    28
    -72
    10.8
       
Retail
    47
    -82
    7.5
       
Industrial
    48
    -76
    8.8
       
Hotel
    36
    -99
    22.5
       
Investor
                   
Conduits
    6
    -98
    30.9
       
Commercial banks
    74
    -86
    8.9
       
Life insurance companies
    44
    -73
    7.8
       
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac
    164
    -15
    12.0
       
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
    


 

Asia Outlook

       
Country
    2009 GPD growth
rate (%)
    2010 GDP
growth
rate (%)
    Typical
real estate
yield (%)
       
Australia
    -0.3
    1.7
    7.0
       
China
    7.0
    8.3
    8.8
       
India
    5.2
    7.8
    9.5
       
Japan
    -5.8
    0.7
    4.0
       
South Korea
    -3.0
    3.5
    5.8
       
Vietnam
    4.3
    5.5
    11.0
       
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
    

People Staying Put

The appeal of the Sunshine State has clouded over somewhat, causing Florida to lose more residents than it gained for probably the first time in its history, according to the Brookings Institution. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that from 2007 to 2008, 48 of Florida’s 67 counties showed reduced in-migration or greater out-migration, due in most part to the falling housing market. Overall, U.S. migration levels dropped sharply through July 2008, with only 11 million people crossing county lines, compared with nearly 16 million earlier in the decade. While hot housing markets in the Sun Belt are suffering from this decline, older metros are gaining. New York, Los Angeles, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh lost fewer people, and Chicago and Boston actually gained residents.


 

Commercial Real Estate Debt Market Snapshot

Mortgages to mature 2009–2011
       
Commercial
    $594 billion
       
Multifamily
    $220 billion
       
Total
    $814 billion
       
Maturing in
           
2009
    $250 billion
       
2010
    $264 billion
       
2011
    $300 billion
       
Source: Foresight Analytics
        

Student Housing May Deteriorate

Capitalization rates on student-housing properties have increased 100 to 150 basis points from 2Q08 to 1Q09, nearly half the rise in conventional multifamily cap rates, leading some experts to think that student housing may not be as recession-proof as once thought, according to a report by Hendricks & Partners. Since students sign yearly leases in September, this year’s occupancy has remained unchanged; however, lack of financing for education as well as tighter family finances may translate into lower student-housing occupancy at major universities this fall. And falling college attendance due to fewer students being able to afford tuition could send student-housing property owners into a tailspin, leading to a price-deteriorating selling spree in late 2009.


The Scion Group is completing a $17 million expansion of the 2040 Lofts student housing near the Marquette University campus in Milwaukee. This upscale student housing includes well-appointed common areas as well as loft-style apartments with granite countertops and flat-screen high-definition TVs. Apartments vary from one-bedroom units to four-bedroom suites and rent furnished from $520 to $1,150 per person per month.


 

Top 5 Migration Losses

In metros over 500,000
       
MSA
    Change in migration
population from
2006–07 to 2007–08
       
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
    -37,323
       
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.
    -32,047
       
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
    -18,511
       
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.
    -15,819
       
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.
    -14,872
       
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
    

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