Market Data
Market Trends
2013 CCIM Deal
Makers
CCIM designees reported
participating in 242 deals totaling almost $2.4 billion last year, handily
surpassing 2013’s total of $1.7 billion. The figure is based on the number of
deals published in Commercial Investment Real
Estate’s Deal
Makers and Deal Makers Online columns for the year. While representing only a
fraction of designee activity, the numbers do reflect an improving market. On
average, CCIM members close more than $250 billion annually in transactions.
CCIM designees: report your deals to dealmakers@ccim.com.
Briefly Noted
Hospitality — Branded midscale and upscale projects
dominate the hotel construction pipeline, according to Lodging Econometrics
3Q13 report. Of non-casino projects in the works, nearly 80 percent are
branded, with 30 percent of those being upscale and 61 percent midscale
projects. Hilton, Marriott, and IHG account for 74 percent of the branded
projects.
Industrial — Currently nearly 30 percent of big-box
warehouse demand is due to e-commerce, says a recent Jones Lang LaSalle report,
with retailers now focused on opening mid-size warehouses in smaller markets to
meet same-day delivery demand. The explosive growth of etailing may eventually
lead to six distinct types of e-commerce facilities.
Multifamily — Infill development builders are
experimenting with smaller units to serve the needs of young professionals
encumbered by student debt but attracted to urban living. In a presentation at
the Counselors of Real Estate annual convention, Patrick Kennedy said his
company Panoramic Interests determined that a range of 275 sf to 295 sf was
comfortable for “Generation Rent,” particularly when access to a large outdoor
deck and a “dramatic” lobby space was included.
Office — “Office space will expand in some surprising
markets,” reports PWC and Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate
2014. With low vacancies and rents in the $27 to $28 psf range, downtown
construction is feasible in a number of Southeast markets including Greenville
and Charleston, S.C., Charlotte and Raleigh, N.C., Birmingham, Ala., Nashville
and Chattanooga, Tenn.
Retail — Are power centers back? Possibly, as
the vacancy rate has fallen to below 5.5 percent from a high of 8 percent in
2009, according to CoStar’s 3Q 2013 Retail Review and Outlook. Dollar stores
and discount clothing stores have taken up some space, as well as grocery
anchors from neighborhood centers. A CoStar Index puts the sales psf in power
centers up 15 percent from 2007.
Top Investment Prospects
1. Value-added
2. Development
3. Opportunistic
4. Core-plus
5. Core
Source:
Emerging Trends in
Real Estate 2014 survey
“2014 is the year that institutional investors reduce
their emphasis on core properties. … their future equity investments should
reflect a search for higher returns in value-added and opportunistic
investments in secondary locations, with development focused in only the
strongest markets.”
— Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014
“The people that invest in deals are going to do
really well. The people that invest in markets have more risk — you really need
to play the deal, not the market or sector.”
— participant comment from the Q4-2013 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment
Survey, which measured a three-point drop
in overall real estate conditions from 3Q13 to 4Q13, due to political gridlock and the slow recovery pace.