Industry Insight: December 2025

As 2025 comes to a close, commercial real estate is stepping into 2026 with cautious optimism. Pricing and lending conditions are still adjusting, but many leading indicators suggest a more stable environment ahead. This month’s outlook highlights the macro forces and sector trends CRE professionals are watching most closely as the next cycle takes shape. 

Capital Markets and Investment Climate 
Capital markets are expected to improve gradually in 2026, even as uncertainty remains. Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook survey found that approximately 65 percent of industry leaders expect fundamentals like leasing activity, rental rates, vacancies, and cost of capital to improve through 2026, signaling continued confidence despite volatility.  

At the same time, higher interest rates and significant debt maturities are keeping underwriting disciplined. Deloitte notes that investors are increasingly leaning into real estate debt strategies and private credit as they navigate refinancing needs and a more selective lending environment. Recent reporting also points to lower policy rates supporting transaction activity and refinancing, even though long-term yields remain uneven.  

The practical takeaway for 2026 is a market that rewards careful deal-structuring, strong fundamentals, and realistic pricing more than speed or volume. 

Sector Performance and Market Trends 
Most 2026 forecasts point to continued sector divergence, with a few clear leaders and several transitioning categories. 

• Industrial and logistics remain a core strength. Demand is normalizing from post-pandemic highs, but fundamentals are still healthy, and supply growth is cooling. This keeps rent growth positive, although more moderate than the 2021 to 2022 surge.  
   
• Data centers and digital infrastructure are accelerating into 2026, fueled by AI adoption and record construction spending. Reuters and Bank of America Institute data show U.S. data center construction hit record levels in 2025 and is still climbing, making this one of the most active development stories heading into 2026.  
   
• Multifamily remains favored for its long-term demand base and durability as affordability pressures persist, even while some markets work through new supply.  
   
• Office is still in transition. The 2026 Top 10 Issues to Watch report from the Counselors of Real Estate highlights ongoing repricing, flight to quality, and adaptive reuse as defining themes for the year ahead.  
   
• Retail continues to surprise on the upside. Current outlooks emphasize experiential formats, mixed use integration, and smaller footprints tied to omnichannel strategy.  

Regional Highlights 
Investor attention is expected to stay strong in secondary and tertiary markets through 2026, especially where population growth, job resilience, and affordability align. The Counselors of Real Estate 2026 issues report notes that markets able to attract and retain talent will outperform in a slower growth environment, increasing focus on select, non-gateway metros.  

At the same time, shifting trade patterns and renewed reshoring activity are creating new logistics and manufacturing pockets, which can lift demand in strategic inland and Mountain West corridors. For CRE professionals, local market knowledge and data driven underwriting remain the best tools for identifying which regional stories will hold up under tighter capital conditions. 

Professional Perspective: NAR’s Sustainability Report 
Recent findings from the National Association of REALTORS® 2025 Commercial Sustainability Survey suggest that sustainability considerations are becoming more embedded in everyday commercial real estate decision-making. The data points to a shift from conceptual interest toward practical application, with utility and operations costs cited as very important by 32 percent of respondents, making it the most influential sustainability-related factor when clients decide where to buy or lease. Indoor air quality followed at 26 percent, while 25 percent pointed to energy-efficient windows and doors, signaling a growing focus on how buildings perform day to day rather than how they are positioned conceptually.  

The survey also indicates growing acceptance of sustainability as a value driver. Fifty five percent of respondents report that promoting energy efficiency in listings is very or somewhat valuable, and 30 percent say green building certifications increase commercial property values in their markets. At the same time, 32 percent of brokerage firms report experience with repurposing commercial buildings, reflecting continued momentum toward adaptive reuse as professionals respond to changing space needs and rising development costs. These findings suggest that sustainability is increasingly viewed through the lens of operating efficiency, asset longevity, and long-term risk management.  

Importantly, the report also highlights an education gap. While 37 percent of respondents have completed some form of sustainability-related training, the majority describe that education as limited, and more than 60 percent report low or very low confidence in their knowledge of energy efficiency and sustainability management.  

As sustainability considerations become more central to valuation, redevelopment, and client advisory work, staying informed, educated, and analytically prepared will be essential. While the report does not explicitly track growth from previous years, it clearly signals sustainability’s rising importance as a practical factor shaping commercial property decisions and evolving client expectations. 

Click here to view the full NAR Commercial Sustainability Report 

What CRE Professionals Should Watch Going Into 2026 
Heading into 2026, the themes above point to a few practical focus areas for owners, investors, brokers, and advisors. 

• Prioritize deal fundamentals and cash flow durability as pricing continues to reset.
• Expect continued bifurcation by quality within office, retail, and even industrial.
• Follow infrastructure-led growth, especially data centers and tech enabled logistics.
• Plan for refinancing and capital stack creativity as debt markets stay selective.
• Track regional labor, migration, and reshoring patterns since they are shaping demand more than broad national averages.  

New Year, New Opportunities 
At The CCIM Institute, our focus is to keep CCIMs ready for what comes next. As 2026 approaches, we will continue delivering advanced education, practical tools for modern dealmaking, and timely industry insights that help commercial real estate professionals spot opportunity early and act with confidence. We are excited to see what 2026 has in store and we’ll be ready with more insights along the way.